Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXAK67 PAJK 170548
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
948 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
Occluded front and an associated embedded low running up the
outer coast will continue pushing inland through Friday afternoon.
Southerly flow will persist over the panhandle today with
continuing mid level moisture and orographic lift bringing light
precipitation. This will continue to decrease Friday night into
Saturday, with winds continuing to slacken in that timeframe as
well. For more information see the Marine discussion. While
precipitation will continue a downward trend, cloud cover will
stick around, with parts of the southern panhandle likely to see
some patchy fog due to continued saturation and drop in surface
winds. Overall a damp and cool weekend ahead, with the northern
panhandle getting the best chance for warmer afternoon highs if
cloud cover thins out soon enough.

.LONG TERM...
Continuing form the short term, confidence continues for
decreasing cloud cover and weak outflow developing Sunday night
into Monday for the northern panhandle as a near gale force low
approaches the southern panhandle. This feature is expected to
stall SW of Prince of Wales Island, leading to persistent showers
with heaviest rain rates expected Monday morning. Some model
differences remain in the track of the low, which could lead to
more of the panhandle receiving light rain. Overall as this low is
expected to dissipate, the overall flow will shift onshore, with
light showers and breaks continuing into mid to late next week.
For the northern panhandle, clearing skies and developing weak
outflow with downsloping winds will lead to warmer daytime highs
to start the week.

&&

.AVIATION../through 06z Saturday/...
Mixed bag of flight categories across the area this evening with
persistent moist southerly flow and rain overspreading over the
panhandle TAF sites as a weakening low in the northern gulf shifts
westward towards Prince William Sound. Sustained winds should
remain around 10kts or less, going near calm and variable for much
of the panhandle through Friday night. However, can`t rule out
isolated gusts up to 20kts for the usual suspects like Yakutat,
Haines, and Skagway through 12z. With saturated low levels and
decreasing winds, anticipating predominate MVFR to IFR flight
categories to continue or develop through tonight, driven by
widespread CIGS AoB 2500ft and intermittent reduced vsbys down to
3 to 5SM.

Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage through mid
morning Saturday and into the afternoon as surface ridging shifts
overhead, with MVFR to low-end VFR flight conditions prevailing
after 00z. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Friday afternoon satellite derived winds highlighted the
SE fresh to strong breezes weakening as W-SW winds of moderate to
fresh breezes moves in along our coast. Buoy 84 wave spectrum
indicated swell domination, focused at 6 to 8ft near 11s from the
SW, with seas less than 4ft out of the SE. Expect WSW swell to
continue over the next 24 hours with significant heights near 5 to
7ft. Main threat for westerly fresh breezes is for mariners
operating along Chatham/Sumner ocean entrances and west coast of
Prince of Wales into Dixon Entrance.

A gale force low center will be located off the coast of Haida
Gwaii late Sunday increasing ESE winds to near-gale force for our
coastal waters in the southern Panhandle. There is growing
confidence for gale force southerly winds in Hecate Strait Monday
which would drive fresh seas of 9 to 12ft into far southern
Clarence Strait.

Inside: Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage is currently seeing a
surge of southerly winds reaching near 15 knots. The afternoon
forecast package has delayed this surge into Lynn Canal a few
hours, with this push of elevated southerly winds likely
overnight. By Saturday morning winds across most of the area will
be light with some low clouds and light rain; however, things
should clear up a bit in the afternoon. Main threat for southerly
moderate breezes Saturday will be northern Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-663-664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP

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