Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

136
FXAK67 PAJK 071822
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1022 AM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF issuance...

&&

.AVIATION...The overall pattern remains the same, with a marine
layer bringing lowered CIGs up north and a weak front attempting
to push inland down south. MVFR CIGs between 2000 to 3000 ft
associated with the marine layer across much of the northern and
central panhandle have begun to lift back to VFR heights through
the morning, and any lingering, weak showers are also tapering
off. PAGY will experience some breezy/gusty southerly SFC winds
from this afternoon into the evening hours due to a combination of
sea breeze activity & a tightening southerly pressure gradient
over that area.

A weak frontal band is also approaching the southern panhandle
through Sunday morning, with parts of the southern tip of the
panhandle already beginning to see light rainfall move in. Due to
the weak nature of the front, rainfall should stay south of around
Frederick Sound and become more hit-or-miss showers overnight.
MVFR CIGs are expected with the onset of the front, though heights
may jump back and forth to VFR in between showers. Gusty winds
are also expected to increase with the onset of the front, though
these should peak around 20 kts and decrease again overnight. With
the gusty winds at the surface and similar wind speeds aloft in
the far southern panhandle, LLWS is not expected. The system looks
to linger in the southern gulf into Monday, so showers may be
possible through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 521 AM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Chances of showers linger before a front brushes the southern
  panhandle with light rain and gusty winds Sunday

- Leaning towards drier and slightly warmer conditions for early
  next week, particularly for the northern panhandle.

SHORT TERM...Short range forecast is still relatively quiet with
only a weakening front affecting the gulf waters and southern
panhandle today into tonight being the only standout. Currently
marine layer clouds completely blanket the panhandle this morning
with some areas seeing some light rain or drizzle again. However
the front in the gulf is just offshore with light rain bands
showing up on radar just off Prince of Wales Island.

This front will not make much progress into the panhandle today
and will mainly stall across the southern gulf to Dixon Entrance
area by this afternoon. E to SE winds will top out at around 25
kt across the central and SE Gulf this afternoon and evening with
Clarence Strait also getting in on the act. The front is then
expected to weaken in place through Monday. By Monday afternoon
the front should mostly be gone, winds will have lightened, and
rain changes will have diminished (though some chances of rain
will linger across the south even into Mon night). Otherwise most
other areas will see drier weather with low winds though still
mostly cloudy skies through Monday.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/...The forecast for the
work week remains largely consistent with yesterdays forecast,
though precipitation accumulations are trending slightly drier as
upper-level support weakens. Starting Tuesday morning, persistent
onshore flow is likely to develop as the low in the Gulf
dissipates and high pressure replaces it. Additionally, a weak
front is forecast to track across the southern panhandle bringing
with it lighter precipitation rates. The pressure gradient will
tighten across the northern region with this frontal passage,
leading to elevated winds for Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet, though
current trends suggest weaker than initially thought.

Due to a lack of upper-level forcing, any showers throughout the
week are anticipated to be primarily terrain-driven, characterized
by onshore flow and mainly isolated to the higher elevations. The
region looks to sit under a weak upper-level trough until Wednesday
morning, after which a surface ridge is expected to begin building
on Thursday. Winds will pick up Friday afternoon as another weak
front moves through, preceding the strengthening of the ridge.
Moderate rain showers are then forecast to move across the
panhandle from Friday evening through Sunday.

While temperatures will remain seasonably cool through the week,
there is higher confidence in a slight warming trend for the
upcoming weekend as the region settles under an upper-level ridge
and 850mb temperature anomalies trend warmer. Increased cloud
cover will also help to keep minimum temperatures warmer. By the
end of the week, a stronger Aleutian low is expected to track
toward the western Gulf. This system is expected to weaken as it
enters the Gulf and recent model guidance is starting to agree on
its track trending westward, which should reduce its impact on
Southeast Alaska.

AVIATION... There is a fairly weak low pressure system in the
Gulf of Alaska and an associated front. While weak, some showers
due to marine layer clouds have brought lower ceilings (AoB 1000
feet) and visibilities (less than 2 miles) to Yakutat. As daytime
heating continues, this activity is expected to dissipate.

The front is expected to bring shower chances for areas mainly
south of Fredrick Sound. The low pressure system is forecast to
meander in the Gulf, and lead to continuing rain chances through
the end of the TAF period. Where showers form, MVFR ceilings are
possible. Across the Southern Panhandle, including Ketchikan,
gusty winds up to 20 kts are expected as the front impacts the
area.

As of now, winds look to stay below LLWS criteria for the
Southern Panhandle. After sunset, winds and rain chances across
the area are expected to diminish.

MARINE...
Inner Channels: Quiet morning across the inner channels with
mostly 15 kt or less south to east winds. Clarence Strait will
start seeing winds up to 25 kt as early as midday as the front
that is just offshore moves farther inland. Those winds should
persist into tonight before diminishing Monday morning. Otherwise
most other areas of the panhandle will see lighter winds as the
front is not expected to move any farther north then the southern
panhandle. However, a flip of wind direction from S to N is
expected for many areas this afternoon and evening. Seas are
mainly expected to be wind wave up to 4 ft with up to 6 ft in
Clarence Strait today into tonight due to the higher winds there.

Gulf Waters: The same front that will stall over the southern
panhandle is affecting a large portion of the gulf today. Expect
20 to 25 kt E winds across most of the gulf waters today due to
the front. Those winds will gradually diminish Sunday night and is
expected to be less then 15 kt for most areas by Monday afternoon.
Wind directions then flip to more N or NW Monday night. Seas are 7
ft or less across the gulf this morning with 3 ft or less swell.
Potential for 8 ft seas along the front today into tonight, but
expect gradually subsiding seas Monday into Monday night as winds
diminish and swell remains nearly non existent.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLC/ZTK
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...Musall
MARINE...EAL

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